In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries …: Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States. The primary purpose is to examine if periods of low inflation are associated … variance in unemployment. In the U.S. case we find that the variance of unemployment is lower in the low inflation regime than …

. -- New Keynesian Phillips curve ; cointegration ; vector autoregressive model …

Various inflation forecasting models are compared using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. We focus on … the question of whether monetary aggregates are useful for forecasting inflation, but unlike previous work we examine a … are also reported on. The first shows that cointegration vector parameter estimation error is crucial when using VEC …

rate, unemployment and inflation in West Germany from the early 1960s up to 2004 using a multivariate co-integration …New-Keynesian macroeconomic models typically assume that any long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment is … data a strong negative correlation between the trend components of inflation and unemployment. We show that this finding …

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. While this statement is widely accepted in terms of a long-run relationship, the … quantity theory has been made operational also for the short-run dynamics of inflation by so-called Pstar models. An error … inflation. The response of the HICP is strongly positive. Other factors such as raw material prices and unit labor costs also …

. Our results suggest the existence of nonlinearities in Mexico only for the merchandise inflation measure, including the … over headline inflation is small. Our results are consistent with the consolidation of a low ERPT in Mexico. …

useful information about variables such as commodity prices which matter for aggregate demand and thus inflation. Given this …

This paper documents, for the first time in a systematic manner, the link between labor cost and price inflation in the … and price inflation in the four major economies of the euro area and across the three main sectors. The dynamic …. Our results show that it is more likely that labor costs are passed on to price inflation with demand shocks than with …

growth regime. Since the great financial crisis inflation developments have posed major puzzles to economists as inflation … paper analyses whether the wage-price pass-through may have contributed to these inflation puzzles. Applying the Threshold … or diminish the puzzle of the missing disinflation of the past two recessions suggesting that inflation should be …