The interest rate assumptions for macroeconomic forecasts differ considerably among central banks. Common approaches are given by the assumption of constant interest rates, interest rates expected by market participants, or the central bank's own interest rate expectations. From a theoretical...

A probabilistic assessment about the set of possible trajectories that a random variable may follow over time is summarized by the simultaneous confidence region generated from its forecast generating distribution. However, if the null model is only approximative or altogether unavailable, one...

In many empirical applications, a combined density forecast is constructed using the linear pool which aggregates several individual density forecasts. We analyze the linear pool in a mean/variance prediction space setup. Our theoretical results indicate that a well-known 'disagreement' term can...