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to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270748
In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus … matrix of h-steps ahead forecasts. In the empirical analysis, we examine the forecasting performance of the New Area … scope for improving the NAWM's forecasting performance. For example, the model is not able to explain the moderation in wage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273631
indicators play a crucial role for forecasting regional GDP. Keywords: regional forecasting, forecast combination, factor models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011397275
A probabilistic assessment about the set of possible trajectories that a random variable may follow over time is summarized by the simultaneous confidence region generated from its forecast generating distribution. However, if the null model is only approximative or altogether unavailable, one...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273617
small set of macroeconomic fundamentals being relevant for forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011892028
This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models for output growth, inflation and the interest rate. The model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical U.S. data vintages...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305958
model used for the measurement of current and forecasting of the future customer profitability. Modern customer … research model uses RFM model to define forecasting variables and neural network, multivariate regression analysis and binary … logistic regression as forecasting methods. This paper shows the ways how proposed methods can be used in process of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011920317
and forecasting as well as for "what-if" inferring suitable for entities of all sizes. In particular, it allows for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012288753
priors entertained for all variables at all forecasting horizons. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011399901
need to be included in a VAR if interest is in forecasting or impulse response analysis of a given set of variables. We … including the selected variables into VARs typically improves forecasting accuracy at short horizons. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012099218