This paper evaluates the performance of optimal simple policy rules in the presence of news shocks. It is shown that the inclusion of forward-looking elements enhances the performance of simple optimized interest rate rules when agents learn about future disturbances in advance. We provide a...

This paper analyzes the cyclicality of real consumer wages and real producer wages in Germany. In order to scrutinize whether the empirical results are robust to the detrending method, we apply the deterministic trend model, the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the...

This paper assesses the role of financial variables in real economic fluctuations, in view of analysing the link between financial cycles and business cycles at the global level. A Global VAR modelling approach, which has been proved suitable for modelling country or regional linkages, is used...

We study the cyclicality of public R&D in 28 OECD countries (1995 - 2017). While procyclical on average, public R&D reacts asymmetrically over different phases of the business cycle and becomes acyclical during recessions. It is also heterogeneous across countries: Innovation leaders and...

We contribute to the recent literature on the economic effects of those weather conditions that deviate from their regular seasonal pattern. To this end we use local temperature and snow measurements across Germany to analyze their impact on German monthly total industrial and...

Different theoretical and empirical studies lead to the different results. Different theories suggest a positive as well as a negative relation between the terms-of-trade and trade balance. The traditional Keynesian Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect of the terms-of-trade on the trade balance is...

In this paper we use information on the cyclical variation of labor market participation to learn about the aggregate labor supply elasticity. For this purpose, we extend the standard labor market matching model to allow for endogenous participation. A model that is calibrated to replicate the...

This paper examines the labour market matching process by distinguishing its two component stages: the contact stage, in which job searchers make contact with employers and the selection stage, in which they decide whether to match. We construct a theoretical model explaining two-sided selection...