We propose a simple modification of the time series filter by Hamilton (2018b) that yields reliable and economically meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8-quarter ahead forecasts errors of an autoregression. While this approach yields a cyclical component of...

The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were...

This paper introduces monopolistically competitive banks into the New Keynesian DSGE setting. I find that this contributes to explaining three empirical facts: (i) The short-run transmission of changes in monetary policy to bank retail rates is far from complete and heterogeneous. Stiffer...

The estimation of dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) turns out to be challenging in the presence of a small sample. It is exacerbated if the sample is characterized by a prolonged period of low interest rates near a time-varying effective lower bound. These challenges all weigh heavily when...

We combine the factor augmented VAR framework with recently developed estimation and identification procedures for sparse dynamic factor models. Working with a sparse hierarchical prior distribution allows us to discriminate between zero and non-zero factor loadings. The non-zero loadings...

Standard procedures for output gap estimates, such as the Hodrick-Prescott Filter or the Production Function Method, suffer from the sample phase shift issue at the end of the sample. This often provides unstable and unreliable estimates for the current output gap. However the current estimate...

Argentina is the only country in the world that was 'developed' in 1900 and 'developing' in 2000. Although various underlying reasons have been identified (chiefly political instability, financial development, inflation, trade openness, and international financial integration), no study has...

Previous research shows that technical progress at the industry level, measured by sectoral TFP growth, is more localized in continental European countries than in Anglo-Saxon coun-tries. We use EU KLEMS data sets to decompose sectoral TFP for nine European countries by means of a Malmquist...

The standard two-sector monetary business cycle model suffers from an important deficiency. Since durable good prices are more flexible than non-durable good prices, optimising households build up the stock of durable goods at low cost after a monetary contraction. Consequently, sectoral outputs...