This paper analyses the impact of oil both price shocks on the GDP and prices in the Spanish economy and its seventeen NUTS-2 regions. The Qu and Perron (2007) and the Bai and Perron (1998, 2003a and 2003b) methods identify different periods across the sample. Evidence in favour of a diminishing...

This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models for output growth, inflation and the interest rate. The model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical U.S. data vintages...

Recent empirical evidence suggests that product creation is procyclical and it occurs largely within existing fi rms. Motivated by these findings, the current paper investigates the role of intrafi rm product scope choice in a general equilibrium economy with oligopolistic producers. We show...

In this paper I use the predictive distribution of the back-, now- and forecasts obtained with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR (MF-BVAR) to provide a real-time assessment of the probability of a recession in the euro area for the period from 2003 until 2013. Using a dataset that consists of 135...

The degree of comovement of economic activity across states or regions is an issue of utmost importance to policymakers. Asymmetric business cycles are often seen as an impediment to the formation of a common currency area. However, it has been argued that a common monetary policy in itself...

This paper assesses the role of financial variables in real economic fluctuations, in view of analysing the link between financial cycles and business cycles at the global level. A Global VAR modelling approach, which has been proved suitable for modelling country or regional linkages, is used...

The paper considers an elementary New-Keynesian three equation model and compares its Bayesian estimation to the results from the method of moments (MM), which seeks to match a finite set of the model-generated second moments of in ation, output and the interest rate to their empirical...

The detection of business-cycle turning points is usually performed with non-linear discrete-regime models such as binary dependent variable (e.g., probit or logit) or Markov-switching methods. The probit model has the drawback that the continuous underlying target variable is discretized, with...

The paper considers two rival models referring to the new macroeconomic consensus: a standard three-equations model of the New-Keynesian variety and dynamic adjustments of a business and an inflation climate in an `Old-Keynesian' tradition. Over the two subperiods of the Great Inflation and...

This paper addresses a general problem with surveys asking agents for their assessment of the state of the economy: answers are highly dependent on information that is publicly available, while only information that is not already publicly known has the potential to improve a professional...