In this paper we reexamine the relative role of soft and hard data in terms of short-term GDP forecasting. We employ mixed frequency models (MF-VARS) and real-time data to investigate the relative role of survey data relative to industrial production and orders in Germany. Special emphasis is...

This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be...