Seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) data are inevitably surrounded by uncertainty. Disregarding methodological improvements, two main sources of revisions can be distinguished: First, revisions that reflect the incorporation of more comprehensive or more representative, but...

We propose a monitoring procedure to detect a structural change from stationary to integrated behavior. When the procedure is applied to the errors of a relationship between integrated series it thus monitors a structural change from a cointegrating relationship to a spurious regression. The...

Normality testing is an evergreen topic in statistics and econometrics and other disciplines. The paper focuses on testing economic time series for normality in a robust way, taking specific data features such as serial dependence and time-varying volatility into account. Here, we suggest tests...

In this paper we examine if Slovak retail gasoline and diesel prices respond more quickly when crude oil price rises rather than when it decreases. The error correction model with irreversible behaviour of explanatory variables is considered to be basic tool for the analysis of asymmetric retail...

This paper aims to provide reliable estimates for the COVID-19 contact rate of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, From observable data on confirmed, recovered, and deceased cases, a noisy measurement for the contact rate can be constructed, To filter out measurement errors and...

This paper provides a comprehensive Monte Carlo comparison of different finite-sample biascorrection methods for autoregressive processes. We consider situations where the process is either mildly explosive or has a unit root. The case of highly persistent stationary is also studied. We compare...

We investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to poverty using cross-sectional data and panel data. We use long-term panel data from Germany and apply different regression models, based on household covariates and previous-year equivalence income, to classify a household as...

We present a model of multinational firms that predicts that aggregated affiliates' sales fall in distance. The distance effect on foreign affiliate sales is driven by the extensive margin: distance affects the number of affiliates negatively while it has an ambiguous effect on the average...

Innovations, be they radical new products or technology improvements are widely recognized as a key factor of economic growth. To identify the factors triggering innovative activities is a main concern for economic theory and empirical analysis. As the number of hypotheses is large, the process...