We show that technical indicators deliver economic value in predicting the U.S. equity premium. A crucial element of this value stems from the stability of return predictability over the full sample period from 1950 to 2013. Results tentatively improve over time and beat alternatives over...

The Black-Litterman (BL) model aims to enhance asset allocation decisions by overcoming the weaknesses of standard mean-variance (MV) portfolio optimization. In this study we implement the BL model in a multi-asset portfolio context. Using an investment universe of global stock indices, bonds,...

We propose a refined way of forecasting the equity premium. Our approach rests on the sum-of-parts approach which disaggregates the equity premium into four components. Each of these components is predicted separately, following the approach of Ferreira and Santa-Clara (2011). We extend the set...

Garbade and Silber (1979) demonstrate that an asset will be liquid if it has (1) low price volatility and (2) a large number of public investors who trade it. Although these results match nicely with common notions of liquidity, one key element is missing: liquidity also depends on (3) an asset...

We develop a misspecification test for the multiplicative two-component GARCH-MIDAS model suggested in Engle et al. (2013). In the GARCH-MIDAS model a short-term unit variance GARCH component fluctuates around a smoothly timevarying long-term component which is driven by the dynamics of a...

We analyze how to fight the financial crisis at the level of Household Economics, by adopting environmental friendly alternative forms of energy, that reduce the CO2 emissions and the cost of living. The value of such green solutions is multiple: at the level of a better and healthier quality of...

This paper proposes a latent dynamic factor model for low- as well as high-dimensional realized covariance matrices of stock returns. The approach is based on the matrix logarithm and allows for flexible dynamic dependence patterns by combining common latent factors driven by HAR dynamics and...

This paper considers how an investor in foreign exchange markets might exploit predictive information in macroeconomic fundamentals by allowing for switching between multivariate time series regression models. These models are chosen to reflect a wide array of established empirical and...

Sluggish adjustment of expectations to new information is rational in an environment characterized by information costs and signal-to-noise problems. This paper investigates the role of such information rigidities for exchange rate expectations using data from Consensus Economics for eight...

The aim of the study is to establish insolvency forecast model with the usage of different statistical methods and compare their efficiency. Besides this the relation and direction between indebtedness and financial distress is also part of the examination. With different approaches we nearly...