Shocks in the financial sector caused the great recession of 2008 and pulled down the real economy. To implement financial dynamics in a stylized DSGE-framework we use behavioral elements in expectations to produce waves of bull and bear cycles in the financial intermediation process, that have...

Central bank announcements have strong effects on interest rates, but small or even counterintuitive effects on economic expectations. Based on tick-by-tick futures prices on bonds and stock prices, I confirm these seemingly puzzling results for the euro area and provide evidence that they are...

This paper theoretically analyzes the macroeconomic effects of gender discrimination against women in the labor market in a New Keynesian model. We extend standard frameworks by including unpaid household production in addition to paid labor market work, by assuming that the representative...

The estimation of dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) turns out to be challenging in the presence of a small sample. It is exacerbated if the sample is characterized by a prolonged period of low interest rates near a time-varying effective lower bound. These challenges all weigh heavily when...

We combine the factor augmented VAR framework with recently developed estimation and identification procedures for sparse dynamic factor models. Working with a sparse hierarchical prior distribution allows us to discriminate between zero and non-zero factor loadings. The non-zero loadings...

In this paper, we estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model developed by Ireland (2003) on French, German and Spanish data with the aim to explore the macroeconomic consequences of EMU. In order to validate the results from the DSGE model, we amend this analysis by stability tests of monetary policy...

This paper evaluates the performance of optimal simple policy rules in the presence of news shocks. It is shown that the inclusion of forward-looking elements enhances the performance of simple optimized interest rate rules when agents learn about future disturbances in advance. We provide a...

In this paper we quantitatively evaluate the hypothesis that the Great Moderation is partly the result of a less activist monetary policy. We simulate a New Keynesian model where the central bank can only observe a noisy estimate of the output gap and find that the less pronounced reaction of...

In a small-scale New-Keynesian model with a hybrid Phillips curve and IS equation, the paper is concerned with an arbitrary frequency of the agents' synchronized decision making. It investigates the validity of a fundamental methodological precept according to which no substantive prediction or...

This paper investigates how the ordering of variables affects properties of the time-varying covariance matrix in the Cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model. It establishes that systematically different dynamic restrictions are imposed when the ratio of volatilities is time-varying....