Financial contracts are complicated and consumers often do not grasp them in their entirety. This may lead to financial mistakes. We develop a quantitative theory of unsecured credit and equilibrium default in a market with sophisticated and näive borrowers who sometimes misunderstand their...

We model the dynamics of the euro area yield curve using a shadow-rate term structure model (SRTSM), with particular attention to the period since late 2011 when interest rates have been at the lowest level since the inception of EMU. The shadow rate is driven by latent factors with linear...

We study the determinants of bond spreads of euro area sovereigns since the introduction of the euro. We show that an aggregate risk factor is a main driver of spreads. The aggregate risk factor also plays an important role for sovereign risk through its interaction with the size and structure...

We trace the impact of the European Central Bank (ECB) asset purchase programme (APP) on the yield curve. Exploiting granular information on sectoral asset holdings and ECB asset purchases, we construct a novel measure of the "free-float of duration risk" borne by pricesensitive investors. We...

Incorporating arbitrage-free term-structure dynamics into a semi-structural macro-model, we jointly estimate the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are...

This paper shows that the consumption-based asset pricing model (C-CAPM) with low-probability disaster risk rationalizes large pricing errors, i.e., Euler equation errors. This result is remarkable, since Lettau and Ludvigson (2009) show that leading asset pricing models cannot explain sizeable...

This paper provides an explanation why garbage as a measure of consumption implies a several times lower coefficient of relative risk aversion in the consumption-based asset pricing model than consumption based on the official National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA): Unlike garbage, NIPA...

This paper presents a new mechanism through which monetary policy rules affect inflation persistence. When assuming that price reset hazard functions are not constant, backward-looking dynamics emerge in the NKPC. This new mechanism makes the traditional demand channel of monetary transmission...

Abstract: Im Rahmen eines Mehrsektoren-Modells der österreichischen Kapitaltheorie entwickle ich für die Parameter des 21. Jahrhunderts die Hypothese des negativen natürlichen Zinses, d.h. des Gleichgewichtszinses in einem Zustand ohne Staatsschulden. Ich nenne dies das NNIM-Modell (negative...

The present study aims to verify whether the balance-of-payments constrained growth approach is suitable for explaining the Portuguese growth performance during the last decades. For that, we adopt "Thirlwall's Law" that predicts actual growth by the ratio of the exports growth relative to the...