Showing 1 - 10 of 96
is strongly superior? When does a conflict develop towards a peaceful conflict resolution, terrorism, a guerilla war, or … a widely spread conventional civil war? We develop a formal model for rebels and government and derive optimal choices …. Further, we focus on three elements as important ingredients of a "destabilization war". All three of these - large random …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011527744
We study a model of war in which the outcome of the war is uncertain from the perspective of the involved countries not … at any resource level. From an ex ante perspective it is therefore likely to win the war. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270185
Exploiting the natural experiment of the German reunification, we examine how consumers adapt to a new environment in their macroeconomic forecasting. We document that East Germans expect higher inflation and make larger forecast errors than West Germans even decades after reunification....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012099230
We use surveys of German households and firms to study the extent of information frictions among different groups of economic agents. Firms' expectations about the central bank policy rate, inflation, and aggregate unemployment are more aligned with expert forecasts and less dispersed than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012623122
We test whether immigrants are more prone to support terror than natives because of lower opportunity costs, using the international World Values Survey data. We show that, in general, economically, politically and socially non-integrated persons are more likely to accept using violence for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305939
We develop a model of insurrection markets and integrate the youth bulge as measured by the relative youth cohort size. As youth-specific characteristics we define the young person's attitude toward revolutionary groups and the government, the degree of risk aversion and the relative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011301541
We identify the causal effect of a reduction in military personnel on a number of socioeconomic indicators within the periphery of the military base. The base realignments and closures (BRACs) within the German armed forces is an exogenous source of variation that allows for the estimation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011332503
In the present paper we analyse for the first time as far as we know, the ancient Greek regional proto-federations, of free-democratic city-states. We examine their political institutions and policies, like common defense and external policy, military organization, representative federal bodies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011397469
’s extractive policies and her intended risk of war. Relying on a general equilibrium model, we show that (i) autocrats can utilize … hostilities but also causes ordinary citizens to favor war since the autocrat would then loose her grip at home. Our results help …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011892035
The need to introduce scientific management and change management, while respecting the requirements for efficiency and transparency in the security industry, requires the corresponding responsibility to the obligations and adaptability to the changes in the security environment, to the risks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011920458