We model the dynamics of the euro area yield curve using a shadow-rate term structure model (SRTSM), with particular attention to the period since late 2011 when interest rates have been at the lowest level since the inception of EMU. The shadow rate is driven by latent factors with linear...

We study the determinants of bond spreads of euro area sovereigns since the introduction of the euro. We show that an aggregate risk factor is a main driver of spreads. The aggregate risk factor also plays an important role for sovereign risk through its interaction with the size and structure...

We trace the impact of the European Central Bank (ECB) asset purchase programme (APP) on the yield curve. Exploiting granular information on sectoral asset holdings and ECB asset purchases, we construct a novel measure of the "free-float of duration risk" borne by pricesensitive investors. We...

Incorporating arbitrage-free term-structure dynamics into a semi-structural macro-model, we jointly estimate the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are...

This note shows that in a large class of El Farol models the failure of agents to find rational prediction rules which stabilize is not due to a non-existence of perfect rules, but rather to the failure of agents to identify the correct class of predictors from which the perfect ones can be...

People do not only feel guilt from not living up to others expectations (Battigalli and Dufwenberg (2007)), but may also like to exceed them. We propose a model that generalizes the guilt aversion model to capture the possibility of positive surprises when making gifts. A model extension allows...

Using a new daily dataset for all stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange, we study the evolution of information asymmetry during runs on financial institutions and the subsequent liquidity freeze of October 1907 - one of the severest financial crises of the 20\textsuperscript{th} century....

Learning that others earn more may reduce individual well-being but can also be informative about the own income prospects. This paper provides experimental evidence that separates direct effects of income comparisons on well-being and informational effects from observing changes in the income...

A policy maker (PM) needs information that only financial market traders know in order to implement his optimal policy, and traders may aggregate this information in asset prices. In such a setting, prices can become uninformative, because the PM reacts to information contained in prices,...

Using the microdata of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we evaluate whether U.S. consumers form macroeconomic expectations consistent with different economic concepts. We observe that 50\% of consumers have expectations consistent with the Income Fisher equation, 46\% with the Taylor rule and...