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conditional variances determine the persistence of the transmitted volatility innovations. In particular, the influence of a …This paper analyzes volatility spillovers in multivariate GARCH-type models. We show that the cross-effects between the … foreign volatility innovation on a conditional variance is even more persistent than an own innovation unless this effect is …
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specification reflects key characteristics of aggregate social behavior such as strong persistence and gradual adjustments to new …
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We represent the dynamic relation among variables in vector autoregressive (VAR) models as directed graphs. Based on these graphs, we identify so-called strongly connected components (SCCs). Using this graphical representation, we consider the problem of variable selection. We use the relations...
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In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a unique data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden-Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a...
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Cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model. It establishes that systematically different dynamic restrictions are … divergent when volatility clusters idiosyncratically. It is illustrated that this property is important for empirical … applications. Specifically, alternative estimates on the evolution of U.S. systematic monetary policy and in ation-gap persistence …
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