This paper puts forward a Bayesian version of the global vector autoregressive model (B-GVAR) that accommodates international linkages across countries in a system of vec-tor autoregressions. We compare the predictive performance of B-GVAR models for the one- and four-quarter ahead forecast...

Incorporating arbitrage-free term-structure dynamics into a semi-structural macro-model, we jointly estimate the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are...

The inverse relationship between unemployment and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), commonly known as Okun?s law, has been traditionally analysed in the economic literature. Its application to Spain is interesting as the strong impact of business cycles on unemployment is a particular feature of the...

Transformation to post-industrial or knowledge-based economies causes changes in the structure of labour markets with growing demand on highly-qualified workforce. In XXI century human capital has become one of the most important production factors determining competitiveness and innovativeness...

In this paper I evaluate the effects of a regional experiment that reduced payroll-taxes by 3-6 percentage points of the firm's wage sum in Northern and Eastern Finland. I estimate the effect of the payroll-tax reduction on firms' employment, wage sum and profits, and on workers hourly pay and...

Empirical research on agglomeration and regional economic growth puts high emphasis on the impact of specialization, diversity, and competition on regional employment dynamics (Glaeser et al. 1992, Henderson et al. 1995, Blien et al. 2006, Fuchs 2009). However, Beugelsdijk (2006) and Raspe/van...

This paper analyses a local marketing campaign that provided information about unproven age-re-lated stereotypes and the value of older workers in Germany. The campaign was designed to increase the hiring rate of older workers. Using comprehensive register data, we find that the information...

This paper studies the effects of investment tax credits on firms’ input choices by exploitinga sudden shift in the tax credit rate by firm size for manufacturing firms in Germany in 1999. I find that more generous tax credits lead to a significant increase in both investment and employment,...