We estimate a logit mixture vector autoregressive model describing monetary policy transmission in the euro area over the period 2003Q1-2019Q4 with a special emphasis on credit conditions. With the help of this model, monetary policy transmission can be described as mixture of two states (e.g.,...

This paper theoretically analyzes the macroeconomic effects of gender discrimination against women in the labor market in a New Keynesian model. We extend standard frameworks by including unpaid household production in addition to paid labor market work, by assuming that the representative...

We show that nonbanks (funds, shadow banks, fintech) reduce the effectiveness of tighter monetary policy on credit supply and the resulting real effects, and increase risk-taking. For identification, we exploit exhaustive US loan-level data since 1990s and Gertler-Karadi monetary policy shocks....

We propose a small open economy model where agents borrow internationally and invest in liquid foreign assets to insure against liquidity shocks, which temporarily shut out the economy of short-term credit markets. Due to the presence of a pecuniary externality individual agents borrow too much...

After 2008, the Southern European economies suffered a strong and persistent increase in unemployment. Rising government bond spreads necessitated the implementation of austerity policies. Austerity however, may increase unemployment. If workers lose human capital during unemployment spells, the...

Understanding gross capital flows is increasingly viewed as crucial for both macroeconomic and financial stability policies, but theory is lagging behind many key policy debates. We fill this gap by developing a two-country DSGE model that tracks domestic and cross-border gross positions between...

This paper introduces a new effective exchange rate regime classification. Traditional classifications define the stability or flexibility of a currency with respect to one ("anchor") currency, thus implicitly neglecting information on exchange rate relationships against other currencies. Our...

Central bank announcements have strong effects on interest rates, but small or even counterintuitive effects on economic expectations. Based on tick-by-tick futures prices on bonds and stock prices, I confirm these seemingly puzzling results for the euro area and provide evidence that they are...

This theoretical model analyzes the impact of interbank credit market dynamics on the resilience of the financial system. Based on a stochastic model of interbank market credit flows, lending in the interbank market is restricted by the availability of liquidity. Following a shock...

Incorporating arbitrage-free term-structure dynamics into a semi-structural macro-model, we jointly estimate the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are...