The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were...

We propose a simple modification of the time series filter by Hamilton (2018b) that yields reliable and economically meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8-quarter ahead forecasts errors of an autoregression. While this approach yields a cyclical component of...

The Austrian Beveridge curve shifted in 2014, leading to ongoing academic discussions about the reasons behind this shift. While some have argued that the shift was caused by a supply shock due to labour market liberalization, others have stated that matching efficiency decreased. Using a new...

This paper uses panel data on migration flows between municipalities in Norway from 2000-2008. The relatively new method of fixed effects vector decomposition (fevd) is used to estimate parameters for time-invariant spatial structure variables as well as for labour market factors such as...