We estimate a logit mixture vector autoregressive model describing monetary policy transmission in the euro area over the period 2003Q1-2019Q4 with a special emphasis on credit conditions. With the help of this model, monetary policy transmission can be described as mixture of two states (e.g.,...

We show that nonbanks (funds, shadow banks, fintech) reduce the effectiveness of tighter monetary policy on credit supply and the resulting real effects, and increase risk-taking. For identification, we exploit exhaustive US loan-level data since 1990s and Gertler-Karadi monetary policy shocks....

This work investigates effects of conventional monetary policy and central bank information shocks from monetary policy announcements on the U.S. economy. We identify the surprises caused by changes in target rate and central bank’s private information embedded in high frequency exchange rate...

We propose a novel framework where forward guidance (FG) is endogenously determined. Our model assumes that a monetary authority solves an optimal policy problem under commitment at the zero-lower bound. FG derives from two sources: 1. from commiting to keep interest rates low at the exit of the...

Using a representative consumer survey in the U.S., we elicit beliefs about the economic impact of climate change. Respondents perceive a high probability of costly, rare disasters in the near future due to climate change, but not much of an impact on GDP growth. Salience of rare disasters...

This theoretical model analyzes the impact of interbank credit market dynamics on the resilience of the financial system. Based on a stochastic model of interbank market credit flows, lending in the interbank market is restricted by the availability of liquidity. Following a shock...