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We evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than indicators obtained … with country-specific export compositions. A larger share in raw material or oil exports worsens the accuracy of soft … indicators, we find only weak evidence for the export composition to explain differences in forecast accuracy. …
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surfaces, productions, annual average fruit consumption, the import and export in Romania compared to the E.U. with the purpose …
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Evidence on the effectiveness of FX interventions in the prevailing higher frequency approaches leaves a gap at horizons going beyond a few days. This is addressed by identifying a structural vector autoregressive model for the daily frequency with an external instrument. Using Japanese data, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012232128
I study the pricing of American Depositary Receipts around FOMC meetings to identify the impact of US monetary policy on managed exchange rates. ADR investors assess the domestic central bank’s reluctance to maintain a currency peg regime if the costs of mimicking policy rate increases in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012265914
This paper provides a new perspective on the exchange rate disconnect puzzle by referring to the expectations building mechanism in foreign exchange markets. Therefore, we analyze the role of expectations regarding macroeconomic fundamentals for expected exchange rate changes. In doing so, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012435503