In this paper we propose a new small area estimation methodology aimed at the estimation of Value Added, Labor Cost and related competitiveness indicators for subsets of the population of Italian small and medium sized manufacturing firms classified according to geographical region, industrial...

Emerging market economies (also known as emerging economies, EEs) have become important on the world economic stage, where they now play a vital role in international trade and financial flows and account for a conspicuous fraction of the global economic dynamic. Despite the relatively tepid...

The speed of income convergence in Europe remains one of the hot topics in regional economics. Recently Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) applied to spatial autoregressive models seems to have gained more popularity. BMA averages over some predetermined number of so called top models, ranked by the...

This study suggests a two-step approach to identifying and interpreting regional convergence clubs in Europe. The first step calculates Bayesian probabilities for various assignments of regions to two clubs using a general stochastic space-time dynamic panel relationship between growth rates and...

This study suggests a two-step approach to identifying and interpreting regional convergence clubs in Europe. The first step involves identifying the number and composition of clubs using a space-time panel data model for annual income growth rates in conjunction with Bayesian model comparison...

Incorporating arbitrage-free term-structure dynamics into a semi-structural macro-model, we jointly estimate the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are...

We propose a novel framework where forward guidance (FG) is endogenously determined. Our model assumes that a monetary authority solves an optimal policy problem under commitment at the zero-lower bound. FG derives from two sources: 1. from commiting to keep interest rates low at the exit of the...

We revisit the question whether U.S. fiscal policy in the pre-Volcker period was active or passive. To determine the policy stance, we estimate a DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions employing a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm (SMC) for posterior evaluation. In contrast to...