Showing 1 - 10 of 1,671
This paper assesses the role of financial variables in real economic fluctuations, in view of analysing the link between financial cycles and business cycles at the global level. A Global VAR modelling approach, which has been proved suitable for modelling country or regional linkages, is used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476350
We investigate whether the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks vary with the level of uncertainty. Using postwar US data and a Self-Exciting Interacted VAR (SEIVAR) model, we find that fiscal spending has positive output effects in tranquil times but is contractionary during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012268062
This paper puts forward a Bayesian version of the global vector autoregressive model (B-GVAR) that accommodates international linkages across countries in a system of vec-tor autoregressions. We compare the predictive performance of B-GVAR models for the one- and four-quarter ahead forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011505823
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013198269
The present paper discourses on how European integration and gradual enlargement has affected the synchronicity in business cycles in EU regions. The analysis, which is conducted on annual data at the NUTSII level, is based on the following grounds: First, it examines the degree of synchronicity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011508019
This paper sets out a comprehensive framework to identify regional business cycles within Spain and analyses their stylised features and the degree of synchronization present among them and the Spanish economy. We show that the regional cycles are quite heterogeneous although they display some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011555075
This paper investigates how the ordering of variables affects properties of the time-varying covariance matrix in the Cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model. It establishes that systematically different dynamic restrictions are imposed when the ratio of volatilities is time-varying....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012424283
We study the driving forces of the so-called "German labor market miracle" the trend-shift and steady decline of German unemployment over the last two decades that persisted beyond the Great Recession. Our structural VAR approach encompasses various factors within a single comprehensive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012307753
We assess to which degree an international transfer mechanism can enhance consumption risk sharing as well as … EUBS brings about. We find that a EUBS can provide risk sharing by stabilizing relative consumption as well as unemployment … efficiency and consumption risk sharing does not exist after certain demand shocks, the welfare effects of a EUBS depend on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013336272
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012302261