Science-based policy analysis becomes increasingly important in the globalised world. Complex economic and social structures need to be thoroughly analysed and direct and indirect effects of policy measures should be identified and, if possible, quantified. Economic policy modelling has a long...

We compare sparse and dense representations of predictive models in macroeconomics, microeconomics, and finance. To deal with a large number of possible predictors, we specify a prior that allows for both variable selection and shrinkage. The posterior distribution does not typically concentrate...

"An updated guide to risk analysis and modelingAlthough risk was once seen as something that was both unpredictable and uncontrollable, the evolution of risk analysis tools and theories has changed the way we look at this important business element. In the Second Edition of Analyzing and...