techniques to account for uncertainty in the set of underlying factors that are chosen among a very large pool of explanatory …

The forecasting uncertainty around point macroeconomic forecasts is usually measured by the historical performance of … major drawback that it is constant over time and hence does not convey any information on the specific source of uncertainty … the uncertainty around the model’s parameters and the structural errors term to construct asymmetric confidence bands …

Uncertainty is inherent to forecasting and assessing the uncertainty surrounding a point forecast is as important as … the forecast itself. Following Cornec (2010), a method to assess the uncertainty around the indicator models used at OECD … probability distribution of future GDP, as opposed to mean point forecasts. This approach allows uncertainty to be assessed …

indicators to guide monetary policy decisions. However, these gaps are estimated with a large margin of uncertainty, especially … when composed mainly of TFP gaps. Given the high uncertainty of output gap estimates at present, monetary policy should put … of underlying fiscal balances being reasonably robust to output gap uncertainty. …