In this paper, we take a systematic look at global imbalances. First, we provide a definition of the phenomenon, and relate global imbalances to widening external positions of systemically important economies that reflect distortions or entail risks for the global economy. Second, we provide an...

This paper examines whether the level of reserves in emerging market countries has become excessive. It presents a discussion of "adequacy" versus "excessive" levels of reserves, and presents calculations of reserve adequacy for a large number of emerging market countries. Two categories of...

This paper describes a method for parameterising fan charts around GDP growth forecasts of the major OECD economies as well as the aggregate OECD. The degree of uncertainty – reflecting the overall spread of the fan chart – is based on past forecast errors, but the skew – reflecting...

Fan charts were pioneered by the Bank of England and Riksbank and provide a visually appealing means to convey the uncertainty surrounding a forecast. This paper describes a method for parameterising fan charts around GDP growth forecasts by which the degree of uncertainty is based on past...

Macroeconomic forecasters typically forecast fewer recessions than the number experienced, which means economic growth tends to be over-predicted on average. Consequently, forecast errors are not normally distributed, making it difficult to convey the uncertainty and risks based on the...