Financial conditions indices (FCIs) have been developed to summarise financial conditions and also supplement more traditional macroeconomic forecasting. They capture market expectations but also quantitative and survey information. This paper seeks to provide up to date financial conditions...

This paper builds an innovative composite world trade cycle index (WTI) by means of a dynamic factor model to monitor and perform short-term forecasts in real time of world trade growth of both goods and (usually neglected) services. The selection of trade indicator series is made using a...

The OECD framework for estimating potential output is combined with previous OECD empirical research to analyse the causes of recent weak productivity growth. Current weak labour productivity growth in many OECD countries reflects historically weak contributions from both total factor...

This paper firstly describes the role of models in producing OECD global macroeconomic forecasts; secondly, reviews the OECD's forecasting track record; and finally, considers the relationship between forecast performance and models. OECD forecasts are not directly generated from a single global...

China's rise has been the economic success story of the past four decades but economic growth has been slowing and domestic imbalances have widened. This paper analyses the recent evolution of China's imbalances, the risks they pose to the economic outlook and the potential impact of a...

The paper describes the framework used in long-term economic scenarios for the projection of the saving rate, investment, capital stock and current account. The saving rate is determined according to an estimated equation which suggests that demographics, captured by the old-age dependency rate...

Current weak labour productivity growth in many OECD countries reflects historically weak contributions from both total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital deepening. The slowdown in trend productivity growth in the pre-crisis period is mostly explained by a long-established slowdown in...

The recent euro area sovereign debt crisis has shown the importance of market reactions for the sustainability of debt. The objective of this paper is to calculate endogenous government debt limits given the markets assessment of the probability to default. The estimated primary balance reaction...

The sharp rise in debt experienced by most OECD countries raises questions about the prudent debt level countries should target. It also raises questions about the fiscal frameworks needed to reach them and to accommodate cyclical fluctuations along the path towards a prudent debt target. The...

As its workforce ages and major economies shift towards producing higher value-added goods and services, New Zealand will face increasing challenges to remain globally competitive and maintain high living standards. Future growth will need to come increasingly from productivity gains, and...