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fuels over the forecast horizon. The above factors imply that oil prices are likely to continue to exceed the USD 70 to USD …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011639811
on the future oil price path. The scenario analysis suggests that a return of world growth to slightly below pre …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009767765
the bootstrapping technique, allow the ex ante probability of, for example, a negative GDP growth forecast for the current …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009690936
Global trade growth over the past few years has appeared extraordinarily weak, even in relation to weak global GDP growth. This paper shows that the apparent breakdown in the relationship between global trade and global GDP growth is largely explained by two factors: an inappropriate measurement...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011399400
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001441631
-scale DFMs are not systematically more accurate than small-scale bridge models, especially at short forecast horizons. Moreover …, DFM parameters appear to be highly unstable during the Great Recession (2008-2009), making forecast revisions between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011577829
monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of quarterly GDP growth. Amongst the latter, we consider small bridge … equations and forecast equations in which the bridging between monthly and quarterly data is achieved through a regression on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011641205
payments variables suggests that there may be modest reductions in forecast loss, tending to appear in nowcasts produced at the … improvements in forecast accuracy. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011664042
forecast methodology aims at addressing these challenges. The algorithm is said to be “adaptive” insofar as it adapts to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012203223
"Big data" is becoming an increasingly important aspect of our daily lives as the digital sources of information and intelligence that it encompasses become more structured and more publicly available. These sources may enable the generation of new datasets providing high-frequency and timely...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011936143