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Existing stress tests do not capture feedback loops between individual institutions and the financial system. To identify feedback loops, the European Systemic Risk Board has developed macroprudential surveys that ask banks and insurers how they would behave in a macroeconomic stress scenario....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011925698
sovereign debt crisis, in the course of which under-capitalized banks in default-risky countries experienced an increase in … funding costs and raised their holdings of domestic government debt. The model is quantified using Portuguese data and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978544
Malaysia has sustained over four decades of rapid, inclusive growth, reducing its dependence on agriculture and commodity exports to become a more diversified, modern and open economy. GDP per capita is now higher than in a number of OECD economies, while poverty and income inequality have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011700166
Since 2008, excess liquidity - defined as the sum of holdings of central bank reserves in excess of reserve requirements and holdings of equivalent central bank deposits - has tended to accumulate in specific euro area countries and in a small, slowly changing group of credit institutions....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011747703
Failing to account for joint dynamics of credit and asset prices can be hazardous for countercyclical macroprudential policy. We show that composite financial cycles, emphasising expansions and contractions common to credit and asset prices, powerfully predict systemic banking crises. Further,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011976914
The paper assesses the impact of adding information on financial cycles on the output gap estimates for eight advanced economies using two unobserved components models: a reduced form extended Hodrick-Prescott filter, and a standard semi-structural unobserved components model. To complement...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012320331
Using a pan-European data set of 8.5 million firms, this paper finds that firms with high debt overhang invest … same time, the positive impact of a marginal increase in debt on investment efficiency disappears if firm debt is already … of the disciplining role of debt, as well as with models highlighting the negative link between agency problems at firms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011946656
In this paper we assess the merits of financial condition indices constructed using simple averages versus a more sophisticated alternative that uses factor models with time varying parameters. Our analysis is based on data for 18 advanced and emerging economies at a monthly frequency covering...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012653846
We estimate a multivariate early-warning model to assess the usefulness of private credit and other macro-financial variables in predicting banking sector vulnerabilities. Using data for 23 European countries, we find that global variables and in particular global credit growth are strong...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011975644
Debt levels have surged since the mid-1990s and have reached historic highs across the OECD. High debt levels can … create vulnerabilities, which amplify and transmit macroeconomic and asset price shocks. Furthermore, high debt levels hinder … shocks. The empirical evidence suggests that when private sector debt levels, particularly for households, rise above trend …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009696443