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Economic resilience : a new set of vulnerability indicators for OECD countries

Röhn, Oliver; Caldera Sánchez, Aida; Hermansen, … - 2015

potential vulnerabilities that can lead to such costly events. This paper first discusses the source and nature of potential … vulnerabilities in OECD countries that can lead to costly economic crises. Based on the most recent evidence from the early warning … at capturing vulnerabilities that could transmit from one country to another through financial, trade or confidence …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011399583

Economic resilience : the usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries

Hermansen, Mikkel Nørlem; Röhn, Oliver - 2015

developments into account when assessing a country’s vulnerabilities. In the domestic areas, indicators that measure asset market …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011399585

Economic resilience : what role for policies?

Caldera Sánchez, Aida; Rasmussen, Morten; Röhn, Oliver - 2015

the role of macroeconomic and structural policies in spurring or mitigating the vulnerabilities that can lead to costly … insights on how policies can be geared to address vulnerabilities early on, mitigate the impact of shocks and speed recoveries …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011399587

Would a growth slowdown in emerging markets spill over to high-income countries? : a quantitative assessment

Ollivaud, Patrice; Rusticelli, Elena; Schwellnus, Cyrille - 2014

developments and vulnerabilities in EMEs and uses macroeconometric model simulations to provide quantitative estimates of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010374413

OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis : a post mortem

Pain, Nigel; Lewis, Christine; Dang, Thai Thanh; Jin, Yosuke - 2014

This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery, focussing on lessons that can be learned. The projections repeatedly over-estimated growth, failing to anticipate the extent of the slowdown and later the weak pace of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010374419

The trade impact of the UK’s exit from the EU single market

Arriola, Christine; Benz, Sebastian; Mourougane, Annabelle - 2020

This paper quantifies the sectoral trade impact in the United Kingdom and in EU countries of the UK’s exit from the Single Market, using the OECD general-equilibrium METRO model. A comprehensive free-trade agreement could lead to a fall by about 6.1% of UK exports and 7.8% of UK imports in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012420943

Quantifying the effects of trade liberalisation in Brazil : a computabel general equilibrium model (CGE) simulation

Araújo, Sónia; Flaig, Dorothee - 2016

Brazil remains a fairly closed economy, with small trade flows relative to its share of world income. This paper explores the effects of three possible policy reforms to strengthen Brazil’s integration into global trade: a reduction in import tariffs, less local content requirements and a full...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011577734

Five years in a balloon : estimating the effects of euro adoption in Slovakia using the synthetic control method

Žúdel, Branislav; Melioris, Libor - 2016

We analyse the effect of Slovakia’s euro adoption in 2009 on the country’s economic performance by using the synthetic control method. This method compares Slovakia’s economic performance with that of a weighted combination of comparable Central European economies that have remained...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011577856

The potential macroeconomic and sectoral consequences of Brexit on Ireland

Arriola, Christine; Carrico, Caitlyn; Haugh, David; … - 2018

This paper provides estimates of the potential effects on exports, imports, production, factor demand and GDP in Ireland of an exit of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU), focusing on trade and FDI channels. Owing to the high uncertainty regarding the final trade agreement...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011914655

Advance warning indicators of past severe GDP per capita recessions in Turkey

Röhn, Oliver - 2016

The global financial crisis and its high economic and social costs have revived academic and policy interest in “early warning indicators” of crises. This paper aims to investigate the performance of vulnerability indicators as advance warning indicators of past severe GDP per capita...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011577964