need for macroeconomic forecasters to account for sudden and deep recessions, periods of higher macroeconomic volatility … Factor Model (MS-DFM) by incorporating two new features: switches in volatility and time-variation in trend GDP growth. First …, we show that volatility switches largely improve the detection of business cycle turning points in the low-volatility …

-FAO Agricultural Outlook, 2011-2020. The results suggest that both factors have contributed to the recorded volatility in world wheat …This study complements OECD analyses on commodity price volatility by providing quantitative assessments of the impact … of two structural changes that a number of market observers have identified as contributing to world wheat market price …

assumptions, recent experience of highly turbulent markets has renewed interest in quantitative assessment of price volatility by … implemented. As an application, the impact of crop yield shocks on price volatility is studied. Since the concurrent reduction in … of yield shocks to price volatility is measured. This paper shows that correlation effects account for a significant …