Showing 1 - 10 of 65
The COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted an economic hardship unprecedented for the modern age. In this paper, we show that the health crisis and ensuing Great Lockdown, came with an unseen level of economic uncertainty. First, using a European dataset on country-level and regional internet searches,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012291212
This paper explores the relationship between policy settings and extreme positive and negative growth events, what we call GDP tail risks, using quantile regression methods. Conditioning on several country characteristics such as the size, stage of development and openness to trade as well as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011578170
This paper models industrial new orders across European Union (EU) Member States for various breakdowns. A common modelling framework exploits both soft data (business opinion surveys) and hard data (industrial turnover). The estimates show for about 200 cases that the model determinants...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011664038
The Great Recession and the subsequent period of subdued GDP growth in most advanced economies have highlighted the need for macroeconomic forecasters to account for sudden and deep recessions, periods of higher macroeconomic volatility, and fluctuations in trend GDP growth. In this paper, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012227436
-taking. This paper assesses the consequences of bail-in expectations along these dimensions ensuring - through a bond pricing study … - that bail-in expectations are not confounded by other factors. Using hand-collected details of EU bail-in events, I study … both positive and negative exogenous shocks to bail-in expectations, offering three sets of findings. First, bail-in events …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013168204
We introduce SRISK to measure the systemic risk contribution of a financial firm. SRISK measures the capital shortfall of a firm conditional on a severe market decline, and is a function of its size, leverage and risk. We use the measure to study top US financial institutions in the recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011975954
curve specification assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s target, although some experimentation … suggests that alternative proxies for expectations sometimes work better and there is some evidence that persistent under …-shooting of inflation has led to some de-anchoring of expectations from the target, especially in the euro area. For most OECD …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012202854
There are competing arguments about the likely effects of Sovereign Bond-Backed Securitisation on the liquidity of sovereign bond markets. By analysing hedging and diversification opportunities, this paper shows that positive liquidity spillovers would dominate or at least constrain the extent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011848364
change is that inflation expectations have become better anchored as a consequence of credible inflation targeting by central … process of past inflation representing both inertia and inflation expectations formed on the basis of recent inflation … outcomes. Conversely, the new approach adjusts this specification to incorporate the notion that inflation expectations are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011399530
This paper examines the relationship between trade liberalisation and migration in the case of Mexico. The increasing bilateral trade between Mexico and the United States after signing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was supposed to stem the illegal Mexican migration flow by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003393864