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Tracking activity in real time with Google Trends

Woloszko, Nicolas - 2020

This paper introduces the OECD Weekly Tracker of economic activity for 46 OECD and G20 countries using Google Trends search data. The Tracker performs well in pseudo-real time simulations including around the COVID-19 crisis. The underlying model adds to the previous Google Trends literature in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012420946

Adaptive trees : a new approach to economic forecasting

Woloszko, Nicolas - 2020

The present paper develops Adaptive Trees, a new machine learning approach specifically designed for economic forecasting. Economic forecasting is made difficult by economic complexity, which implies non-linearities (multiple interactions and discontinuities) and unknown structural changes (the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012203223

Linking aid to the Sustainable Development Goals : a machine learning approach

Pincet, Arnaud; Okabe, Shu; Pawelczyk, Martin - 2019

Official Development Assistance amounted USD 146.6 billions in 2017 but do we know how much of this aid contributed to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)? And to what SDG in particular? This paper present a new methodology using machine learning designed to link project-based flows to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011992077

Moving towards a more dynamic business sector in Spain

González Pandiella, Alberto - 2014

be relieved. This would be facilitated by more efficient insolvency procedures and further development of non …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010464863

Insolvency regimes, technology diffusion and productivity growth : evidence from firms in OECD countries

McGowan, Muge Adalet; Andrews, Dan; Millot, Valentine - 2017

This paper explores the link between the design of insolvency regimes across countries and laggard firms’ multi …-factor productivity (MFP) growth, using new OECD indicators of the design of insolvency regimes. Firm-level analysis shows that reforms to … insolvency regimes that lower barriers to corporate restructuring are associated with higher MFP growth of laggard firms. These …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011823606

Fear the walking dead : zombie firms, spillovers and exit barriers

Gouveia, Ana Fontoura; Osterhold, Christian - 2018

Productivity growth is slowing down among OECD countries, coupled with increased misallocation of resources. A recent strand of literature focuses on the role of non-viable firms (“zombie firms”) to explain these developments. Using a rich firm-level dataset for one of the OECD countries...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011975694

Non-parametric stochastic simulations to investigate uncertainty around the OECD indicator model forecasts

Rusticelli, Elena - 2012

The forecasting uncertainty around point macroeconomic forecasts is usually measured by the historical performance of the forecasting model, using measures such as root mean squared forecasting errors (RMSE). This measure, however, has the major drawback that it is constant over time and hence...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009690936

Measuring GDP forecast uncertainty using quantile regressions

Laurent, Thomas; Koźluk, Tomasz - 2012

Uncertainty is inherent to forecasting and assessing the uncertainty surrounding a point forecast is as important as the forecast itself. Following Cornec (2010), a method to assess the uncertainty around the indicator models used at OECD to forecast GDP growth of the six largest member...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009690941

Short-term indicator models for quarterly GDP growth in the BRIICS : a small-scale bridge model approach

Chalaux, Thomas; Schwellnus, Cyrille - 2014

This paper extends the OECD Economics Department’s suite of short-term indicator models for quarterly GDP growth, which currently cover only the G7 countries, to the BRIICS countries. Reflecting the relative scarcity of high-quality macroeconomic time series, the paper adopts a small-scale...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010374414

Forecasting GDP during and after the Great Recession : a contest between small-scale bridge and large-scale dynamic factor models

Ollivaud, Patrice; Pionnier, Pierre-Alain; Rusticelli, Elena - 2016

This paper compares the short-term forecasting performance of state-of-the-art large-scale dynamic factor models (DFMs) and the small-scale bridge models routinely used at the OECD. Pseudo-real time out-of-sample forecasts for France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and the United States...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011577829

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