In this paper we study how monetary policy, economic uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty impact on the dynamics of gross capital inflows in the US. Particular attention is paid to the mixed frequency-nature of the economic time series involved in the analysis. A MIDAS-SVAR model is...

We study the impact of debt maturity management in an economy where monetary policy is 'passive' and subservient to fiscal policy. We setup a tractable model, to characterize analytically the dynamics of in ation, as well as other macroeconomic variables, showing their dependence on the monetary...

This paper analyses the monetary and fiscal policy implications of output gap estimates in times of crisis. The widening of output gaps observed in major OECD economies in the wake of the recent crisis has been mainly due to total factor productivity gaps, except in the United States where it...

Current best practice in central banking views a high level of monetary policy predictability as desirable. A clear distinction, however, has to be made between short-term and longer-term predictability. While short-term predictability can be narrowly defined as the ability of the public to...

This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery, focussing on lessons that can be learned. The projections repeatedly over-estimated growth, failing to anticipate the extent of the slowdown and later the weak pace of the...

This paper investigates the existence of significant spillovers from the housing sector onto the wider economy for the seven major OECD countries using Uhlig's (2005) agnostic identification procedure. This method allows a housing demand shock to be identified in a six-variable VAR model by...

This paper details the rationale and methodology behind the construction of the Persistent and Common Component of Inflation (PCCI), a measure of underlying inflation in the euro area. The PCCI reflects the view that underlying inflation captures widespread developments across the Harmonised...