This paper builds an innovative composite world trade cycle index (WTI) by means of a dynamic factor model to monitor … and perform short-term forecasts in real time of world trade growth of both goods and (usually neglected) services. The …. Simulations analysis in pseudo real-time suggests that: i) the global trade index is a useful tool to track and forecast world …

-carbon economy, namely, orderly transition, disorderly transition, and no transition (hot house world). We describe three systemic … risk metrics computed from a copula-based model of dependence between financial firm returns and financial asset market … returns: climate transition expected returns, climate transition value-at-risk, and climate transition expected shortfall …

This study provides evidence on the existence of a negative Greenium, i.e. a green risk premium, based on European … portfolio exposure to climate risk and hedge against it. We estimate that even in a rather benign scenario, there would be …

major economies (USA, UK, Germany, France, Japan, Italy). The performance of Adaptive Trees is on average broadly similar to …