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Increasing moves away from multilateralism have created a fragmented trade and investment scenario where economies progressively combine the application of restrictive unilateral actions with bilateral and regional preferences. The application of, and exceptions to, the non-discrimination...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012249090
We estimate dynamic factor models for two sub-samples between 1995 and 2017 for up to 42 advanced and emerging-market economies to investigate changes in the contribution of global and regional factors to fluctuations in real GDP per capita growth, inflation, 10-year government bond yields and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011995720
This paper builds an innovative composite world trade cycle index (WTI) by means of a dynamic factor model to monitor … and perform short-term forecasts in real time of world trade growth of both goods and (usually neglected) services. The …. Simulations analysis in pseudo real-time suggests that: i) the global trade index is a useful tool to track and forecast world …
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