We show that occupation mobility creates the illusion of cyclical hiring wages. Using administrative data, we find that wages of new hires who remain in the same occupation are no more cyclical than those of existing workers, whereas wages of occupation switchers are highly cyclical. We uncover...

Does a permanent rise in temperature decrease the level or growth rate of GDP in affected countries? Differing answers to this question lead prominent estimates of climate damages to diverge by an order of magnitude. This paper combines indirect evidence on economic growth with new empirical...