There is a large professional literature on the correct measurement of the funded status of and indicated employer contributions to government employee pension plans. But static measures do not provide a quantification of the risk that plans could represent in the future in various possible...

We develop likelihood-based tests for autocorrelation and predictability in a first order non-Gaussian and noninvertible ARMA model. Tests based on a special case of the general model, referred to as an all-pass model, are also obtained. Data generated by an all-pass process are uncorrelated...