risk premia. The extent of this bias is substantial as verified by a bootstrap approach. We present an alternative … estimation equation for future expected one-period returns based on current and past implied rates of return that is superior to … simple estimators based on historical returns. The reason for this superiority is a lower variance of estimation results and …

This paper quantifies the amount of noise and bias in analysts' forecast of corporate earnings at various horizons. We … next decompose the relative accuracy of these forecasts into three components: (i) noise, (ii) bias and (iii) analysts … both noise and bias are increase linearly. We then show most existing models lack a mechanism to account for these facts …