In this paper we examine the sensitivity of mortgage arrears for Irish households to changes in mortgage interest rates under a series of plausible monetary policy normalisation scenarios. Using panel data over the period 2004 - 2016 we exploit information on current income and current mortgage...

We develop distress prediction models for non-financial small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) using a dataset from eight European countries over the period 2000-2009. We examine idiosyncratic and systematic covariates and find that macro conditions and bankruptcy codes add predictive power...

The analysis of credit risk and its impacting factors are important topics for the European Investment Fund (EIF, the Fund) as the Fund provides guarantees to financial institutions for portfolios of loans and leases to micro- and small and medium sized-enterprises (SMEs). In this context, the...

Banks mustmake forward-looking provisions for loan losses undernewinternational accounting standards introduced in 2018. In Europe, banks will assign performing exposures to a new "Stage 2" category with a higher provisioning penalty, if they have experienced significant increase in credit risk...

This paper proposes a machine learning approach to estimate physical forward default intensities. Default probabilities are computed using artificial neural networks to estimate the intensities of the inhomogeneous Poisson processes governing default process. The major contribution to previous...