The aim of this paper is to construct an indicator of potential growth for developed countries using the insights of the theoretical and empirical growth literature. The Pooled Mean Group Estimator of Pesaran, Shin and Smith (1999) that employs a panel data technique is used. This estimator is...

Hours worked is a time series of interest in many empirical investigations of the macroeconomy. Estimates of macro elasticities of labour supply, for example, build on this variable. Other empirical applications investigate the response of hours worked to a shock to technology on the basis of...

The focus of this paper is the evaluation of a very popular method for potential output estimation and medium-term forecasting the production function approachin terms of predictive performance. For this purpose, a forecast evaluation for the three to five years ahead predictions of GDP growth...

The authors analyze 149 newly compiled monthly time series on financial market stress conditions in the euro area. With the aid of a factor model they find different sources of financial stress which are important for selecting and preparing the appropriate policy response. The existence of a...

This study readdresses the determinants of business cycle synchronisation. We test, on the one hand, whether FDI promoting policies may have consequences for the business cycle comovement between countries, and on the other hand, whether more plausible identification strategies change previous...

The financial and economic crisis has drawn attention to the need for a better understanding of destabilising effects that arise in the financial sector and spill over to the real economy. In turn, weakening economic conditions are likely to feed back to the financial sector, thus giving rise to...

Die neue Bundesregierung steht in der kommenden Legislaturperiode vor großen wirtschaftspolitischen Herausforderungen. Zwar war die deutsche Wirtschaftsentwicklung in den letzten Jahren überraschend positiv. Hervorzuheben sind vor allem die starke Zunahme der Beschäftigung und die schnelle...