Weather influences our daily lives and choices and has an enormous impact on cooperate revenues and earnings. Weather derivatives differ from most derivatives in that the underlying weather cannot be traded and their market is relatively illiquid. The weather derivative market is therefore...

Forecasting based pricing of Weather Derivatives (WDs) is a new approach in valuation of contingent claims on nontradable underlyings. Standard techniques are based on historical weather data. Forward-looking information such as meteorological forecasts or the implied market price of risk (MPR)...

On the temperature derivative market, modeling temperature volatility is an important issue for pricing and hedging. In order to apply pricing tools of financial mathematics, one needs to isolate a Gaussian risk factor. A conventional model for temperature dynamics is a stochastic model with...

A State Price Density (SPD) is the density function of a risk neutral equivalent martingale measure for option pricing, and is indispensible for exotic option pricing and portfolio risk management. Many approaches have been proposed in the last two decades to calibrate a SPD using financial...

With increasing wind power penetration more and more volatile and weather dependent energy is fed into the German electricity system. To manage the risk of windless days and transfer revenue risk from wind turbine owners to investors wind power derivatives were introduced. These insurance-like...

The study of natural catastrophe models plays an important role in the prevention and mitigation of disasters. After the occurrence of a natural disaster, the reconstruction can be financed with catastrophe bonds (CAT bonds) or reinsurance. This paper examines the calibration of a real...

Weather derivatives (WD) are different from most financial derivatives because the underlying weather cannot be traded and therefore cannot be replicated by other financial instruments. The market price of risk (MPR) is an important parameter of the associated equivalent martingale measures used...

Recently the topic of global warming has become very popular. The literature has concentrated its attention on the evidence of such effect, either by detecting regime shifts or change points in time series. The majority of these methods are designed to find shifts in mean, but only few can do...

Electricity load forecasts are an integral part of many decision-making processes in the electricity market. However, most literature on electricity load forecasting concentrates on deterministic forecasts, neglecting possibly important information about uncertainty. A more complete picture of...

We analyze a consistent two-factor model for pricing temperature derivatives that incorporates the forward looking information available in the market by specifying a model for the dynamics of the complete meteorological forecast curve. The two-factor model is a generalization of the...