the beginning of 2018. They also have performed well in forecasting the direction of inflation. In terms of the …

forecasting solutions. In this context, the paper develops new forecasting methods for an old problem by employing 13 machine …

to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing … booms and recessions to check whether a specific indicator that appears to be a good choice on average is also preferable in …

story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …

comprehensive real-time forecasting exercise for recessions in the US. Moreover, we propose a novel smooth transition modelling …

. - Recessions ; forecasting ; probit ; VAR … short-term interest rate, stock returns or corporate bond spreads. The forecasting performance is very good for the United …-post classification of recessions and non-recessions 95% of the time for the one-quarter forecast horizon and 87% of the time for the four …

analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in … quantify the extent to which ROC could be exaggerating the true predictive value of the yield curve in predicting recessions. …