Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper...

Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expert forecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a...

This paper revisits the relationships among macroeconomic variables and asset returns. Based on recent developments in econometrics, we categorize competing models of asset returns into different "Equivalence Predictive Power Classes" (EPPC). During the pre-crisis period (1975-2005), some models...