This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two … turning points in the inflation cycle ex post and perform well in a simulated real-time exercise over the period from 2010 to …

Density forecasts of euro area inflation are a fundamental input for a medium-term oriented central bank, such as the … euro area (headline and core) inflation and a large set of determinants, is competitive with state-of-the-art linear … ECB point inflation forecasts, displaying similar deviations from "linearity". Given that the ECB modelling toolbox is …

techniques can help to improve the nowcast of monthly German inflation in real time. Our nowcasting exercise targets three … the lowest aggregation level underlying official German inflation, such as those of butter and coffee beans. We show that … demonstrate that these scanner-based price indices improve inflation nowcasts at this very narrow level, notably already after the …

the real-time nowcast of German inflation. Our nowcasting exercise targets three hierarchy levels of inflation: individual … products, product groups, and headline inflation. At the individual product level, we construct a large set of weekly scanner …-frequency setup, these indices significantly improve inflation nowcasts already after the first seven days of a month. For nowcasting …

inflation. During crises periods, the strength of the transmission of inflation uncertainty shocks from one country to another … tends to intensify. This paper examines empirical methodologies to measure the strength of the interdependence of inflation … uncertainty between the UK and the euro area. We first estimate inflation uncertainty by expost forecast errors from a bivariate …

Historians have suggested there were waves of inflation or price revolutions in the UK (and earlier England) in the 13 …th, 16th, and 18th centuries, prior to the ongoing inflation since 1914. We study retail price inflation since 1251 and … volatility. The long-horizon forecasts suggest only one inflation wave, that of the 20th century. We also use the model to …

power for inflation or, put differently, whether money growth Granger causes inflation. We use a historical dataset … - consisting of annual Swedish data on money growth and inflation ranging from 1620 to 2021 - and employ state-of-the-art Bayesian … likelihoods - provides strong evidence in favour of money growth Granger causing inflation. This strong evidence is, however, not …

We assess the bivariate relation between money growth and inflation in the euro area and the United States using hybrid … statistically unstable across time in both regions. The effect that shocks to money growth has on inflation weakened notably after … monetary aggregates to inflation. …

factors that influence trend inflation in the USA. Using structural shocks that incorporate a broad set of information for the … US economy, we find that four structural shocks have significant effects on trend inflation: productivity, price mark …-up, government policy, and finance. During and in the aftermath of the Great Recession, trend inflation became more volatile after …