This paper investigates the predictive power of the shadow rate for the inflation rate in countries with a zero lower … parameters we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of an inflation model including a shadow rate interaction term … inflation rate are evaluated. The models including the shadow rate interaction term are found to outperform the benchmark ones …

five years, where the euro area has, following a period of low inflation, navigated a global pandemic, Russia's invasion of … Ukraine and an unprecedented surge in inflation. The survey has evolved over time and provides not only a long time series of …. We show that, for each of the three main macroeconomic variables forecast - HICP inflation, real GDP growth and the …

This paper reinvestigates the performance of trimmed-mean inflation measures some 20 years since their inception … measures in forecasting headline inflation. …

investigate the inflation expectations and uncertainties of firms. We document that, in the aggregate, firm inflation expectations … are very similar to the predictions of professional forecasters for national inflation statistics, despite a somewhat … inflation expectations bear little in common with the "prices in general" expectations reported by households. Next we show that …

investigate the inflation expectations and uncertainties of firms. We document that, in the aggregate, firm inflation expectations … are very similar to the predictions of professional forecasters for national inflation statistics, despite a somewhat … inflation expectations bear little in common with the "prices in general" expectations reported by households. Next we show that …

This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of inflation expectations, with a … focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The results suggest that long-term inflation expectations in …. Indeed, in EMDEs, long-term inflation expectations are more sensitive to both domestic and global inflation shocks. However …

inflation - is a central determinant of welfare, the cost of business cycles, the optimal rate of inflation, and the tradeoff … between inflation and output stability. While the comovement of price dispersion and inflation implied by standard models is … the data, the comovement of price dispersion and inflation turns positive. Nevertheless, I show that a wide variety of …

. Previous literature has highlighted the role of an economy's "structure" - such as its inflation volatility, inflation rate …, forecasts predicting how a given exchange rate movement will impact inflation at a specific point in time should take into …

The proposition that inflation expectations can be extracted as inflation predictions from the government bond yield … of inflation. Examining the sub-periods separated by the adoption, in 2000, of inflation targeting, we find that the … monetary policy regime shift strengthened the relationship between the yield spread and future inflation. The results suggest …

inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations. In a model with an occasionally binding zero-lower-bound constraint …, we show that an inflation bias as well as a deflationary bias exist as a steady-state outcome. We assess the predictions … of this model using unique individual-level inflation expectations data across nine countries that allow for a direct …