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's tests to detect a cointegration relationship significantly deteriorates under two empirically plausible circumstances: (i … ) when, in addition to a cointegration relationship, a system features one or more "nuisance" series - i.e., series driven by … permanent shocks different from those driving the cointegration relationship; and (ii ) when a system features multiple …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011824292
Since World War II, permanent interest rate shocks have driven nearly all of the fluctuations of U.S. M1 velocity, which is cointegrated with the short rate, and most of the long-horizon variation in the velocity of M2-M1. Permanent velocity shocks specific to M2-M1, on the other hand, have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011824316
Building upon the insight that M1 velocity is the permanent component of nominal interest rates - see Benati (2020) - I propose a novel, and straightforward approach to estimating the natural rate of interest, which is conceptually related to Cochrane's (1994) proposal to estimate the permanent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012520193
Building upon the insight that M1 velocity is the permanent component of nominal interest rates - see Benati (2020) - I propose a novel, and straightforward approach to estimating the natural rate of interest, which is conceptually related to Cochrane's (1994a) proposal to estimate the permanent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362282
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cointegrating relationship to a spurious regression. The cointegration monitoring procedure is based on residuals from modified …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484411
This paper inspects a grid search algorithm to estimate the AR(1) process, based on the joint estimation of the canonical AR(1) equation along with its reverse form. The method relies on the GLS principle, accounting for the covariance error structure of the special estimable system....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011784570
We propose an estimation strategy that accounts for two major problems raised in the empirical literature testing for the prevalence of the inverted U-shaped relation between environmental degradation and economic activity, namely the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. First, we use...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011447524