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Unternehmens- versus Analystenbefragungen : zum Prognosegehalt von ifo-Geschäftserwartungen und ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen

Hüfner, Felix; Schröder, Michael - 2001

In der vorliegenden Arbeit untersuchen wir die Eignung der ifo-Geschäftserwartungen und der ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen … Umfragen unter Finanzanalysten basierenden ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen einen signifikanten einmonatigen Vorlauf vor den ifo …-Geschäftserwartungen haben. Wir führen dies auf unterschiedliche Erwartungsbildungen der beiden Gruppen zurück. Die ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011445667

Assessing the macroeconomic forecasting performance of boosting : evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany

Buchen, Teresa; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2013

The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009721997

Macroeconomic forecasts and the nature of economic shocks in Germany

Döpke, Jörg - 2000

Der Beitrag untersucht die Ursachen von Fehlern der Konjunkturprognose der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose der … Arbeitsgemeinschaft wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute in Deutschland. Die Prognosefehler werden im Rahmen eines …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476550

Nowcasting real GDP growth : comparison between old and new EU countries

Kočenda, Evžen; Poghosyan, Karen - 2020

We analyze the performance of a broad range of nowcasting and short-term forecasting models for a representative set of twelve old and six new member countries of the European Union (EU) that are characterized by substantial differences in aggregate output variability. In our analysis, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012172202

The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices

Allayioti, Anastasia; Venditti, Fabrizio - 2024

Commodity prices co-move, but the strength of this co-movement changes over time due to structural factors, like changing energy intensity in production and consumption as well as changing composition of underlying shocks. This paper explores whether econometric models that exploit this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486704

Nowcasting East German GDP growth : a MIDAS approach

Claudio, João Carlos; Heinisch, Katja; Holtemöller, Oliver - 2019

Economic forecasts are an important element of rational economic policy both on the federal and on the local or regional level. Solid budgetary plans for government expenditures and revenues rely on efficient macroeconomic projections. However, official data on quarterly regional GDP in Germany...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012146339

Text data rule - don't they? : a study on the (additional) information of Handelsblatt data for nowcasting German GDP in comparison to established economic indicators

Shrub, Yuliya; Rieger, Jonas; Müller, Henrik; Jentsch, … - 2022

The prompt availability of information on the current state of the economy in real-time is required for prediction purposes and crucial for timely policy adjustment and economic decision-making. While important macroeconomic indicators are reported only quarterly and also published with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361278

Forecasting economic activity in Germany : how useful are sentiment indicators?

Hüfner, Felix; Schröder, Michael - 2002

We analyze four economic sentiment indicators for the German economy regarding their ability to forecast economic activity. Using cross correlations and Granger causality tests we find that the ifo business expectations (ifo), the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and the ZEW Indicator of Economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011447594

Predicting recessions in Germany with boosted regression trees

Döpke, Jörg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Pierdzioch, Christian - 2015 - First version: October 2015

We use a machine-learning approach known as Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) to reexamine the usefulness of selected leading indicators for predicting recessions. We estimate the BRT approach on German data and study the relative importance of the indicators and their marginal effects on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011381289

Forecast errors and the macroeconomy : a non-linear relationship?

Fritsche, Ulrich; Döpke, Jörg - 2006 - This version: February 2006

The paper analyses reasons for departures from strong rationality of growth and inflation forecasts based on annual observations from 1963 to 2004. We rely on forecasts from the joint forecast of the so-called "six leading" forecasting institutions in Germany and argue that violations of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010426366

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