The Financial Instability Hypothesis associated with Hyman Minsky has profound implications for the conduct of monetary policy in modern capitalist economies. At its core is the proposition that the central bank may contribute to the financial fragility of leveraged firms in its pursuit of...

This paper attempts to test whether financial supply-side shifts explain the low-investment climate of private firms in Germany. The core contention is that a firm's financial position contributes to its access to external finance on credit markets. Special emphasizes is put on small and...

This paper evaluates the predictive out-of-sample forecasting properties of six different economic uncertainty variables for both growth in aggregate M2 and growth in household-sector M2 in the U.S. using data between 1971m1 and 2014m12. The core contention is that economic uncertainty improves...

This article tests the hypothesis that financial supply-side shifts help to explain the low-investment climate of private firms in Germany. The core contention is that a firm's financial position contributes to its access to external finance on credit markets. Special emphasis is put on small...

Es werden die makroökonomischen Prognosen der acht großen deutschen Forschungsinstitute evaluiert. Die Datenbasis umfasst die publizierten Prognosen für 11 Aggregate für den Zeitraum 2005 bis 2014. Zunächst wird jede Variable separat mittels aktueller Evaluationsmethoden untersucht. Diese...

In this article we derive a microfounded model of money demand under uncertainty built on intertemporally optimizing risk-averse households. Deriving a complete solution of the optimization problem taking the intertemporal budget constraint into account leads to ambiguous effects w.r.t. to the...

Low-pay work has been increasing in prevalence in many industrial countries. Following standard wage/price-setting theory, this increase should reduce structural unemployment, because labour market flexibility increases and labour costs decrease. However, a Keynesian perspective challenges this...

We investigate the probability forecasting performance of a three-regime dynamic ordered probit model framework suitable to forecast recessions, low growth periods and accelerations for the U.S. and Japan. In a first step, we apply a non-parametric dating algorithm for the identification of...

The FEP function package for the gretl program is a collection of functions for computing different types of forecast evaluation statistics as well as tests. For ease of use a common scripting interface framework is provided, which is flexible enough to accommodate future additions. Most of the...

In this article we derive a microfounded model of money demand under uncertainty built on intertemporally optimizing risk-averse households. Deriving a complete solution of the optimization problem taking the intertemporal budget constraint into account where linearization procedures in our...