This study investigates how well weekly Google search volumes track and predict bank failures in the United States between 2007 and 2012, contributing to the expanding literature that exploits internet data for the prediction of events. Different duration models with time-varying covariates are...

On August 11 2015, China revamped its procedure of setting the official central parity of the renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar. Our empirical investigation shows that the intertemporal dynamics of China's central parity are not the same before and after this policy change. They are more...

This paper has two objectives. Initially, seeks to review the main theses contained in the Brazilian economic literature on the role of the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) and its historical role in financing Brazilian economic development. The second objective is to analyze the perspective...

Based on a review of international and regional responses to the global financial and economic crisis and its implications for finance in Asia, Douglas Arner and Lotte Schou-Zibell draw lessons for Asian financial systems with regard to the scope of regulation; financial standards; supervision,...

The last twenty years or so have seen a sharp decline in public equity. I present a framework that explains the forces that cause the listing propensity of firms to change over time. This framework highlights the benefits and costs of a public listing compared to the benefits and costs of...

This paper proposes a systemic risk index based on Functional Data Analysis (FDA), overcoming salient shortcomings of standard methodologies related to data usage, data sparseness, and high dimensionality issues. Using Mexican data, a set of systemic risk indexes are constructed and we show that...

We show that realized volatility, especially the realized volatility of financial sector stock returns, has strong predictive content for the future distribution of market returns. This is a robust feature of the last century of U.S. data and, most importantly, can be exploited in real time....

Periods of excessive credit growth can imply emergence of systemic financial stress which may result in financial crisis causing severe losses in the real economy. The base indicators of overheatedness in the credit markets are the expansion of the credit-to-GDP ratio and its deviation from its...

We review heterogeneous agent-based models of financial stability and their application in stress tests. In contrast to the mainstream approach, which relies heavily on the rational expectations assumption and focuses on situations where it is possible to compute an equilibrium, this approach...

We use a compound option-based structural credit risk model to infer a term structure of banking crisis risk from market data on bank stocks in daily frequency. Considering debt service payments with different maturities this term structure assigns a separate estimator for short- and long-term...