The choice of a smoothing parameter or bandwidth is crucial when applying nonparametric regression estimators. In nonparametric mean regression various methods for bandwidth selection exists. But in nonparametric quantile regression bandwidth choice is still an unsolved problem. In this paper a...

This paper discusses two graphical methods for the investigation of local association of two continuous random variables. Often, scalar dependence measures, such as correlation, cannot reflect the complex dependence structure of two variables. However, dependence graphs have the potential to...

In nonparametric mean regression various methods for bandwidth choice exist. These methods can roughly be divided into plug-in methods and methods based on penalizing functions. This paper uses the approach based on penalizing functions and adapt it to nonparametric quantile regression...

Does increased policy uncertainty dampen investment plans of firms? We provide direct evidence on this question by examining the effects of an unexpectedly accepted and farreaching referendum in Switzerland in February 2014. The vote has put several economically relevant agreements between...

In Switzerland a sudden policy uncertainty shock happened in February 2014 with the close and largely unexpected acceptance of a referendum aiming at limiting free movement of persons. The referendum requires Switzerland to reintroduce annual quotas for immigrants within three years. The...

This paper presents a coincident and a leading composite monthly indicator for the world business cycle - the Global Economic Barometers. Both target the world’s output growth rate cycle. The calculation of these indicators comprises two main stages. The first consists of a variable selection...

Emerging countries in many cases are more crisis-prone than highly developed industrialized countries. This is in many cases due to a weak or volatile financial sector. The best policy to strengthen crisis resistance is the building up of a sound financial position. A sound financial position of...

This paper presents a composite leading indicator for the Swiss business cycle corresponding to the growth rate cycle concept. It is the result of a complete overhaul of the KOF Economic Barometer that has been published by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute on a monthly basis since 1976. In line...

Das ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung in München führt seit seiner Gründung im Jahr 1949 regelmäßige Unternehmensbefragungen durch. Bisher bestand kein institutionalisierter Datenzugang zu den Mikrodaten für Forscher außerhalb des Institutes. Die Mikrodaten werden nunmehr im ifo...

Der 2009 im Handel durchgeführte "Test des Tests" durchlief bis zur endgültigen Version verschiedene Konzeptionsphasen. Zunächst wurden die Fragebögen der früheren Meta-Umfragen als Orientierungsmaßstab insbesondere hinsichtlich Zielvorstellung, Wortlaut und Umfang herangezogen und auf die...