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We develop a new method that detects jumps nonparametrically in financial time series and significantly outperforms the … generated by a process that experiences both jumps and volatility bursts. As a result, the network learns how to disentangle the …: we obtain fewer spurious detection and identify a larger number of true jumps. When applied to real data, our approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181300
Two of the fastest growing frontiers in econometrics and quantitative finance are time series and financial econometrics. Significant theoretical contributions to financial econometrics have been made by experts in statistics, econometrics, mathematics, and time series analysis. The purpose of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484894
In credit default prediction models, the need to deal with time-varying covariates often arises. For instance, in the context of corporate default prediction a typical approach is to estimate a hazard model by regressing the hazard rate on time-varying covariates like balance sheet or stock...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008939079
trader identifiers at a tick transaction level. Jumps are frequent events and they cluster in time. The order flow imbalance … and the preponderance of aggressive traders, as well as a widening of the bid-ask spread predict them. Jumps have short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011762219
to overestimate the number of jumps in yield spreads and puts the coherence of test results at risk. We formalize the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014343097
We derive a nonparametric test for constant (continuous) beta over a fixed interval of time. Continuous beta is defined as the ratio of the continuous covariation between an asset and observable risk factor (e.g., the market return) and the continuous variation of the latter. Our test is based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010253467
We test whether a simple measure of corporate insolvency based on equity return volatility - and denoted as Distance to Insolvency (DI) - delivers better predictions of corporate default than the widely-used Expected Default Frequency (EDF) measure computed by Moody's. We look at the predictive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013448706
jumps over a grid of thresholds and selects the optimal threshold at what we term the “take-off” point in the estimated … number of jumps. We show that this method consistently estimates the jumps and their indices as the sampling interval goes to … jumps and its ability to distinguish between true jumps and large diffusive moves. In one of these Monte Carlo studies we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011524214
We introduce the class of FloGARCH models in this paper. FloGARCH models provide a parsimonious joint model for low frequency returns and realized measures and are sufficiently flexible to capture long memory as well as asymmetries related to leverage effects. We analyze the performances of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011586235
This paper proposes a new class of multivariate volatility model that utilising high-frequency data. We call this model the DCC-HEAVY model as key ingredients are the Engle (2002) DCC model and Shephard and Sheppard (2012) HEAVY model. We discuss the models' dynamics and highlight their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009351